What was this "plan" again?

Well, this has been an interesting few days. I held off writing about Gary Matthews, Jr. because I'm not entirely sure I understand what happened. We sent a young, hard throwing reliever to the Angels for... a defensively and offensively declining potential replacement for Carlos Beltran? At first I was fine with this, mainly because I don't think Angel Pagan should be in the major leagues as anything but a fourth outfielder. But as I'm hearing more and more and GMJ, doubts are beginning to surface. That, plus Jerry has already gone on the record as saying that Pagan will have the edge over GMJ in spring training. These people talk way too much. This situation is similar to what happened with Ryan Church last year - and Jerry's comments then were really the beginning of the end for Church.

Moving on - yesterday afternoon, the news broke that Ben Sheets was signed by the A's for $10 million. I wanted to take a gamble on Sheets, but not for $10 million, so even though I'm disappointed by this news, I am glad we didn't offer him that much. Sheets has a huge upside, but did not pitch at all last year. I think the A's are insane, but this is a good deal for Oakland because 1) they have the money to spend and 2) they set themselves up for a situation where they can trade Sheets for prospects in July if their season isn't going anywhere.

And now this morning I discover that Jon Garland is going to the Padres on a one year, $5.3 million signing. As with Jason Marquis, I don't believe that either Sheets or Garland would have been our saving grace... but I think they would have been an improvement, especially Garland because he will give you 190 innings every season. So now, the Mets will be offering John Smoltz some kind of deal. I have serious doubts as to his ability to start, given his age and the trouble he had last season. If anything, Smoltz can probably help out of the bullpen and I'm sure he is a valuable veteran to have around in terms of mentoring younger players. But - and this is my biggest issue - this guy is a BRAVE. The last time we tried that, it worked out REALLY well... oh wait.

Anyway, the Mets have clearly been lying to us about this so-called off season plan. Pitching and defense? Really? Mets management needs to have their own three day mini-camp in the Seattle Mariners front office. Those guys know how to build a team to fit their ball park.

Pineiro goes to the Angels

It's been a rough stretch for Omar. First, the Carlos Beltran Debacle. Then, Bengie Molina opts to go back to the Giants after being "in serious talks" with the Mets for about 6 weeks. After dodging that bullet, I was really convinced the Mets were going to focus on starters, which it appears they were doing... but now it's being reported that Joel Pineiro is going to sign with the Angels.

Earlier this week, Matthew Cerrone over at Metsblog reported that the Mets were looking to sign some combination of the following: John Smoltz, Joel Pineiro, and Ben Sheets. Sheets threw for some teams on Tuesday and, based on the limited video I saw, looked very good. However, he is such a high risk/high reward pitcher that I really can't see him being the only attempt to upgrade the starting rotation. And as much as I still hate facing John Smoltz, he's not a starter anymore. With Pineiro out of the mix, that group seems much less attractive

Maybe there is some truth to the rumors that the Mets have been in discussions with the Reds regarding Bronson Arroyo and Brandon Phillips - but that scenario seems WAY too good to be true. With a little less than a month left until pitchers and catchers, I'm curious to see how this off season ends.

Confusing turn of events

Bengie Molina signed a deal to return to the Giants yesterday. This confuses me for several reasons. 1. Molina's sticking point with New York was allegedly that he wanted a 3 year deal... but he signed with the Giants for only one. 2. Everyone wants more money... except Molina signed for less than the Mets were offering. 3. While I understand that not everyone wants to play in New York, or for the Mets (and frankly, after last year, who can blame them) WHY were the Mets so overly confident that they had this signing locked up? They were talking about Molina as if he was a sure thing as far back as the winter meetings. Congratulations, management - you guys look like idiots again. Seems to be a trend.

Don't get me wrong - I'm actually fine with this development. While I think Molina could have helped, especially with a young pitching staff, this is not the end of the world since we've signed 183 catchers this off season. I really don't see a reason why Omir Santos and Henry Blanco can't effectively platoon the starting catcher spot. And we always have Chris Coste just in case. I was never concerned with this position, and I'm still not entirely sure why management has been obsessing over it. Oh well. Time to move on to bigger and better things.

Carlos "My Knee Hurts" Beltran

As I'm sure many of you are aware, Carlos Beltran has undergone knee surgery. He's expected to be out 8-12 weeks, which translates into "Angel Pagan will be starting in center field on Opening Day". Now I have absolutely no idea what the details of this situation are - the Mets are going to release a statement later today. I'm just confused as to how this happens two months before spring training. Beltran was sidelined by this knee problem in June. That was seven months ago. I understand not wanting to rush into surgery, especially if it's unnecessary, but how did this get pushed back so far that now Beltran's going to miss most (if not all) of April? I feel like this could really only happen to the Mets. And I can't help but wonder if this is why they focused so hard on finding a power hitter rather than a starting pitcher this off season.

Quick side notes - Mike Pelfrey will be joining Boomer and Carton on WFAN this morning around 9:00 - I can't wait to hear that interview. Also, David Wright was on with Mike Francesa yesterday and I was very happy to hear from him. It sounds like David has been working hard with HoJo to get back to his pre-2009 form, which will be good for everyone involved.

The X Factor

I decided that Mike Pelfrey is the X Factor of 2010. We're all too familiar with Big Pelf's compulsive behavior on the mound - talking to himself, licking his hand, and those damn "yips". The guy was a basket case last season. He was supposed to make progress and instead it felt like he took three steps backwards. So, here is why Pelfrey is my X Factor: in 2008, he pitched 200 innings and posted a 13-11 record (and that was with a bullpen that easily blew twice as many games as it saved) with an ERA of 3.72.

Now, don't get me wrong - he's got a lot of work to do to overcome last season. His stats from last season don't tell his whole story (10-12, 5.03 ERA) because although those numbers aren't terrible, he entered into "unwatchable" territory. His antics on the mound became so ridiculous and all consuming, that I believe he really did just lose sight of what he was supposed to do. My hope is that with Reyes returning to the field, the improved defense will give Pelfrey more confidence in his sinker. It becomes much easier to pitch when you don't have one part of your mind focused on the "what ifs" of poor defense.

Pelfrey has the ability to swing this rotation. We've seen what he is capable of, and we need him to become that pitcher again. And I still think he should make an appointment with Greinke's psychiatrist, just to be safe.

Starters on the horizon?

It's been a slow off season for us in general, but the past week has been ridiculous. I ran out of speculations and, at the risk of being repetitive, I decided to just wait until there were some new names linked to the Mets before posting again. This morning, I got what I was waiting for - an article on nymets.com by Alden Gonzalez naming potential starters for the Mets to acquire.

Out of what he claims to be "the steady hands" - Joel Pineiro, Jon Garland, and Doug Davis - I'm really only interested in Garland. Pineiro wants way too much money for his talent (thanks again, Randy Wolf) and even though Davis consistently makes 30+ starts per season, the last thing we need is another starter with no control (in 2009, he walked 103 batters and posted a 4.12 ERA). Even though Garland started off shaky last season, he improved so much once he was with the Dodgers that I'd be willing to take that chance for the right price. And as much as I want to kill Omar and the Mets for their inaction, I have to admit that they've been steadfast in holding out for the right price and I do appreciate that.

I disagree with most of the "wild card" starters mentioned after that: Chien-Ming Wang, John Smoltz, Ben Sheets, Pedro, and Erik Bedard. There is no way Pedro is a good investment. Everyone wants to point to his success with Philadelphia last year, but what about the fact that he only made nine starts? He hasn't proven that he can go a whole season, and he'll be looking for at least that. Bedard was shut down for shoulder surgery in 2009 and there's a chance he won't even be ready until the second half. I'm still scared of John Smoltz, because I'm a product of the Braves' dominant NL East run... but that's hardly objective. I wouldn't sign him as a starter because I'd be concerned about his durability, but he's an intriguing option as a reliever (not something we desperately need).

The only high risk pitchers I'd show interest in are Wang and Sheets. I've mentioned before that Sheets will need to come down from $12 million for that signing to be worthwhile, and I have no idea whether or not he plans on doing that. I think that he'll quickly find himself in the "Pedro Zone" if he doesn't lower his price. Wang has been prone to injuries recently, but he has posted impressive numbers in the past. As usual, it's kind of fun to speculate... but I honestly have no idea what Omar has planned. Hopefully there will be some interesting developments between now and February 18th because I'd love to see someone new report for pitchers and catchers.